A report by the South China Morning Post, from Hong Kong, published on July 20, caused a stir in China when it stated that Brazil was preparing to join the Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the New Silk Road.
The report reached this conclusion based on a comment by President Lula on the 19th, at an event about investments in Brazilian highway renovations. On the occasion, Lula stated that Brazil is willing to join the initiative, as long as it brings concrete benefits to the country.
China has been very generous in offering advantages to countries participating in the initiative, not only facilitating access to financing for large infrastructure works that are extremely necessary for Brazil, but also offering enormous opportunities for cooperation and exchanges in various areas, such as agriculture, education , health, science and technology, tourism, culture, sustainable development and the fight against hunger and poverty.
US dissatisfaction
This was the first time that the Brazilian government gave a clear signal of interest in joining the initiative. Not long ago, the environment seemed unfavorable, both due to the mistaken understanding that Brazil’s accession would not add anything significant to bilateral cooperation and due to the fear of crossing a supposed red line from the USA, which still sees Latin America as its backyard and wants to reduce China’s influence in the region.
Since the beginning of President Lula’s current term, US authorities have advised Brazil not to join the initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, but have not been able to offer a viable alternative: the Bring Back Better World initiative, proposed by President Joe Biden in 2021, it never left the drawing board.
Lacking anything to offer Brazil in exchange for non-membership, the US began to raise the tone of its criticism of Belt and Road, reaching its peak in May of this year, when they sent not a civil authority, not even a diplomat, to Brazil. but a military authority, General Laura Richardson, to make a public statement against the deepening of Brazil-China relations.
The US decision to transmit a message through a general reminds us of what happened in Brazil six decades ago, when the US supported a military coup in response to the country’s legitimate attempt to seek trade relations with China. It was only after the visit of then US President Richard Nixon to Beijing that Brazil received “permission” to establish commercial and diplomatic relations with the Asian country.
But General Richardson’s words did not intimidate Lula. The Brazilian president understands American concerns, but also demands respect for the legitimate interests of Brazil, which does not seek geopolitical alignment with either the USA or China, preferring non-alignment.
Since choosing a side in the “new Cold War” would not bring any advantage to Brazil, the only possible strategy is to manage risks, deciding each move based on the national interest and seeking to obtain advantages from both sides.
From this perspective, President Lula’s statement, confirmed on June 22nd during an interview with foreign journalists, about Brazil being willing to join the Belt and Road initiative, must be understood based on the following premises:
1. Brazil’s accession will bring sufficient advantages and guarantees to offset possible geopolitical risks
2. After formalizing membership, a gesture of great importance for the Chinese, it would be reasonable to expect a movement in favor of the USA to balance the interests of these two geopolitical players in relation to Brazil. It is not clear, so far, what type of agreement the US would be interested in reaching with Brazil.
A speech by Lula during the interview on the 22nd deserves particular attention: he highlighted his opposition to a new Cold War and argued that the right of each country to make its own commercial and diplomatic choices must be respected.
Lula reversed the logic of analysts who fear US retaliation for Brazil’s eventual adherence to the initiative: for the Brazilian president, strengthening relations with China would be a way of balancing power in the region, making Brazil less vulnerable to the interests of a single foreign power and, consequently, better positioned to put into practice a non-aligned and independent international strategy.
Elevate China-Brazil strategic partnership
During the interview, Lula told the Chinese news agency Xinhua that he is seeking with China “a strategic partnership that involves not just exporting commodities, but that involves, deep down, us having a discussion involving science, technology, chip production and software”, also citing the generation of jobs for the people of both countries.
Such words suggest that negotiations with China aim to develop strategic sectors of the high-technology industry and may encompass the transfer of essential technologies that Brazil has been trying to develop for decades, often under an intense technological boycott from the West.
Lula also stated that he wants to learn from the Chinese development experience and confirmed his participation, in November, at the Apec\ forum, in Lima, Peru. “I was told that China wants to discuss the Silk Road with me. And I want to discuss the Silk Road with China. I want to know where we are going to go, what position we are going to play, because we don’t want to be a reserve, we want to be a starter.”
Lula’s message is very clear: Brazil dreams big, is not content with being a mere commodity exporter and also wants to export products with greater added value, including those with high complexity.
All of this suggests a significant evolution in the behind-the-scenes conversations related to Brazil’s adherence to the Belt and Road initiative, with China willing to make very interesting concessions to Brazil.
At the same time, geopolitical risks are smaller and easier to manage: the elections and subsequent change of government make the US more focused on internal issues, while Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China will prioritize importing products from countries under development.
The time is now. The time is now.
Article originally published in Forum Magazine
