Gone are the days when the US elections launched candidates with articulate speech and a certain gravitas. The latest debate demonstrates the caliber of those who now reside in the White House, and those who might occupy it. One piece of good news for the Democrats is the resignation of Joe Biden. The current president wants to pass the Democratic torch to Kamala Harris, his vice-president; a possible – but not ideal – solution. The pressure for Biden to give up his candidacy was great, but now that it has finally arrived, it may already be too late to change the outcome. Kamala has little time to win over the party, show her fiber, and garner votes.
Domestically, a totally divided country will choose who sits in the Oval Office. What is certain is that it won’t be Biden and, therefore, there will be a new personality in charge of foreign policy. Regardless of the winner, it must be understood that US administrations always seek to maintain their influence and hegemony in the world. Today there is a consensus among Republicans and Democrats that this goal depends particularly on stopping the rise of China. Despite being very different, Biden has continued the trade war that Trump started. Perhaps even more successfully, because he got the European Union to align itself with US interests. And in this chapter, Trump failed because, as US leader, he opted for a bullying tactic with his European partners. His overly visible “America First” banner opened fissures in Europe, which Moscow and Beijing exploited. Biden reversed this course, reconsolidating the Western bloc. For China, “excess capacity” is flowing less and less into Europe. And Trump may now realize that Biden’s foreign policy, despite being more expensive for the state coffers, poses a difficult problem for Beijing, both commercially and politically.
In China, and after the recent plenary session in the middle of this month, it seems that more emphasis will be placed on internal problems, which are many – and serious. There are once again reforms to balance the accounts of municipal governments, which inevitably takes away the central government’s ability to combat the trade wall imposed from the west. Decoupling is very difficult to combat, especially when, in the eyes of the West, China is supporting Russia in the war with Ukraine. But this also forces China to bet more and more on the qualification of the internal market, and on alternative blocs. Although Europe can say no to China, others don’t have the capacity – or the interest. In many countries, China is better placed.
Kamala shouldn’t deviate from Biden’s script against China; neither should Trump. However, although he thinks that Ukraine is secondary to Taiwan, he may decide not to sacrifice the relationship with Zelensky, and NATO, in order to maintain European support. As for Beijing, it is increasingly clear that the ruler changes, but not the goal – only the means to the end change.
