The White House is not only the greatest symbol of liberal democracy. Each term, the profile of its tenant defines the broad lines of international policy and alliance strategy. In November 2020, when Joe Biden was elected, I wrote in these pages that the celebrations, all over the world, united all those who had turned their backs on Trump; but not necessarily China. Because Biden’s political past, especially during the Obama administration, demonstrated his propensity for the thesis of Western unity against the “axis of evil”, the epicenter of which he saw in China and Russia. The war in Ukraine was not the start of the new “cold war”; it was Obama who began arming China’s neighbors, and advanced NATO through the former Eastern Bloc.
Trump seems capable of surviving anything – even himself. It is difficult to explain to humanists and multilateralists the emotional side of American conservatism; but it is now obvious to everyone that the Democratic strategy has made two fundamental mistakes: first, the legal and moral attack on the leader of the Republican right has lost out to the strategy of victimization, which has given glue to the more radical side of the “Tea Party”, instead of breaking it; second, Biden’s stubbornness, and the inability to replace him in the presidential race, is now descending into episodes that are more than caricatured, they are depressing. The eruption of Democratic voices against Biden’s “senility” heralds an electoral debacle in which he seems to be the only one who doesn’t understand. Replacing him seems increasingly impossible and keeping him in the race gives Trump points every day. Those who, especially in Europe, celebrated the Republican defeat four years ago are now putting their hands on their heads. However, in Moscow and Beijing, the data on the table foreshadows a new world order that could be favorable to them.
In the event of victory, which is looking more and more likely, there is no guarantee that Trump will get closer to Russia and/or China. But he has already proved, during his previous term, that he is not prepared to bear NATO’s costs. And without that effort, Zelensky’s defeat is certain; because without the direct and committed support of the United States, Europe is unable to maintain the support that Ukraine depends on to resist. In this scenario, peace negotiations open up, with Russia as the winner. Trump is erratic enough that nothing can be taken for granted, but that’s what Putin is doing today. And he won’t back down until he sees the results of the US election.
On the other hand, Trump is bad news for Europe’s liberal democracies, which will make them look at the rest of the world with different eyes. Angela Merkel made it clear that, with Trump in the White House, it was inevitable that relations in the East would be strengthened; most certainly with Moscow and Beijing. After Covid-19 and the invasion of Ukraine, she was widely criticized for this “mistake”. It’s true that the world is different now, but Trump’s relations with London, Paris or Berlin will never be famous. And as much as they’ve cut Putin out of their close circle, European leaders will be tempted to give Xi Jinping more leeway.
This is also why Beijing is looking forward to the US elections. And it’s only natural that it wants change. Not because it likes Trump, but its relationship with Biden is clearly hostile and difficult to recover. And, above all, because what China wants most is the retreat of NATO, and advances in the globalization of its economy.
