Sources close to the Chief Executive (CE), cited by Macau Business – MNA, gave the first public signal that Ho Iat Seng is preparing to formally announce his candidacy for a second term. This desire, long known, is now assumed, indirectly, denying that the extension of their vacation – unexpected – would be linked to health or family issues. Even because rumors were multiplying that this would be the narrative of leaving on one’s own foot. The new data does not clarify everything, but it confirms the EC’s will.
There are disparate voices behind the scenes about what is actually happening. And the speculation continues; which is normal in these processes, especially while Beijing does not clarify its position. The most likely conclusion is that Ho Iat Seng feels that the conditions to move forward are in place. In Macau’s political culture, it would be strange to launch a candidacy for a second term, risking losing to someone who could surpass him. In Macau it is possible to gather other wills, but the decision comes from the North.
Taking into account the difficulties in guaranteeing broad – and clear – support both in the most influential local sectors and in the corridors of Central Power, there are those who consider this step a strategy to test the waters, measuring the reactions that the news may provoke. The new rumor is that Ho Iat Seng will have extended his vacation precisely to finalize negotiations; perhaps even traveling to Beijing; or, at least, buying time to fight with whoever, in the capital, guarantees decisive support. What is certain is that, in this context, whoever wants to move forward will have to do so openly against the EC. Which makes the funnel tighter; for the most part, for members of the current Government, and all those who followed him most closely in his first term. In other words, any ambition can only be maintained by those who feel strong enough to face the challenge. And it won’t be Jorge Chiang (see last one).
It can be seen, in the most discreet conversations, that in the first hearings for members of the Electoral Commission there was no fundamental vacancy in favor of Ho de Iat Seng – quite the opposite. But it is also known that, in the end, the decision is centralized. That, despite everything, is the doubt that remains. The electoral calendar was extended – only on August 11th did the Electoral Commission take office – and there were still no clear signals from Beijing. For the first time, at this point, doubt remains.
The most obvious hypotheses are three: everything remains the same and, whoever doesn’t like it, will have to live with it; Ho Iat Seng remains, but accepts a series of changes, different and more autonomous secretaries; or, despite his wishes, the EC misread the conditions and still backs down. There is a fourth hypothesis, less likely, but theoretically possible: the EC advances against another candidate, with strength and lobbying that allows it to truly compete for the Electoral Commission’s votes. It would be a true election, unprecedented, between two candidates with the support of the Central Power. That’s not the dynamic of the post-transition period, but it wouldn’t hurt anyone either. It gave the system a different image; and, for the winner, a support network and scope to govern that they would otherwise be unlikely to have.
*General Director of PLATAFORMA
