On October 27, 2023, it was suddenly announced that former Premier of the State Council, Li Keqiang, had passed away in Shanghai due to a heart attack.
In a brief obituary, the state news agency Xinhua noted that “Li was extolled as an outstanding member of the Communist Party of China, a loyal, time-tested communist soldier and an outstanding proletarian revolutionary, statesman and leader of the Party and state.”
Born in Hefei, Anhui, in 1955, Li had his baptism into the country’s politics during the chaotic Cultural Revolution of 1966-76, managing to enter the prestigious Peking University, where he studied Law and Economics.
Li would rise through the ranks of the Party through his involvement in the Communist Youth League of China (LJCC), serving as its first secretary from 1993 to 1998.
From 1998 to 2004, he served as Governor of Henan and Party Secretary of the province and in Liaoning, the highest political position in the province, from 2004 to 2007.
Matías Otero Johansson, an analyst of Chinese social and political affairs, recalls an episode between Li and US Ambassador Clark T. Randt in 2007. “Then Party Secretary in Liaoning, Li confided that despite vigorous economic growth , income disparities in his province were severe. He had tried to guarantee a minimum standard of living by providing housing for those in need and a job for each family, but the situation was delicate,” he describes to PLATFORMA.
At the time, residents of the province said they were dissatisfied with the levels of education, health and housing, but “it was the corruption that really outraged them”, with Li stating that China’s GDP figures at the time were not reliable.
“When evaluating Liaoning’s economy, Li focused on three numbers: electricity consumption, railway freight volume and loans granted. Li claimed that by looking at these three numbers, he could relatively accurately measure the actual speed of economic growth. All other numbers, especially GDP statistics, were ‘for reference only’,” says Johansson.
According to the political scientist, this episode showed how Li Keqiang was an “intelligent and fundamentally honest man”, who really cared about the citizens in his charge.
The analyst says that Li’s way of being may have been one of the reasons why he lost power “a few years later, but it is worth remembering that, in China’s island politics, Li was not royalty. He was just a court counselor.”
Ascension and overtaking
A man places flowers in front of the former house of former Chinese premier Li Keqiang in Dingyuan county, Chuzhou city, in China’s eastern Anhui province on October 27, 2023. Former Chinese premier Li Keqiang, a reform-minded bureaucrat once tipped as the country’s future leader only to be eclipsed by President Xi Jinping, died on October 27. He was 68. (Photo by Rebecca BAILEY / AFP)
Hu Jintao would attempt to name Li as his successor, but would defer to the conservative faction led by the descendants of Mao’s original revolutionaries, or ‘princes’. “Unlike the Tuanpai, who were vulnerable to accusations of ‘westernization’ at a time when the CCP was going through an identity crisis, the ‘princes’ could claim that loyalty was in their blood,” he indicates.
“They elected Xi Jinping to represent them and forced Hu to accept a compromise at the 18th Party Congress in 2012. Li would become prime minister, but real power would go to Xi.”
Part of the system
On the other hand, Josef Mahoney, professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University, tells PLATAFORMA that the idea of Li wanting more progressive economic reforms and contrary to President Xi is a “liberal fantasy”.
Mahoney says that generally, Chinese prime ministers are more focused on practical and immediate issues as head of government, while the President is more concerned with vision and macro strategic considerations.
According to the academic, the LJCC faction helped implement important policies to support rural development, not in opposition, but in collaboration with President Xi. “Policies that historically went against the interests of the coastal faction or ‘Shanghai faction’ [led by former president Jiang Zemin], but which also helped China eliminate extreme poverty and reach the level of development of a moderately prosperous society.” , comments.
At the same time, he points out that, together, this administration managed to implement measures that “lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and eliminated extreme poverty.” It was “an unprecedented development”, he shoots.
Mahoney also mentions the decision taken ten years ago to move forward with the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, demonstrating an “incredible strategic vision”. “Ultimately, I suspect Li was sidelined more because of pre-existing health concerns than political disputes. That said, it is also possible that his replacement will follow a tradition of political rebalancing,” he considers.
In October last year, Li was removed from the Standing Committee at the 20th National Party Congress, despite still being more than two years below the informally accepted retirement age of 70. He would step down from his top role in March this year, succeeded by Li Qiang, a close associate of Xi since his days in the Zhejiang provincial government.
“The new prime minister is said to be tasked with focusing more on boosting economic growth in urban areas. This does not mean that rural areas are neglected, but, according to some reports, the new prime minister better represents the urban sectors of the economy, which perhaps were not Li Keqiang’s main power base”, he highlights.
Political analyst, Sonny Lo Shiu Hing, highlights to PLATAFORMA that, in the end, “economic pragmatism and political moderation” will always be associated with the previous prime minister, as he was “less ideological and more frank in public” and even so “worked politically in harmony with the dominant political faction”.
“His style will be one of the viable models to be adopted by his successors in a political environment dominated by a dominant faction. This model has brought about a win-win situation for both dominant and unconventional factions, with peaceful coexistence and a mix of ideological and pragmatic policies,” he acknowledges.
