The key interest rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) should reach a maximum level later this year but, in 2024, they should already start to fall, assumes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a base hypothesis for the new world economic projections (economic outlook), released yesterday.
These are summer interim forecasts, which only update the scenario for the largest economies. Portugal does not appear in these accounts.
Euro zone growth was revised upwards (except for Germany, where the recession is getting worse), but the inflation prospects are now worse than estimated three months ago, says the institution based in Washington. The “disinflation” process is slowing down, warned the IMF.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Fund’s chief economist, said at a press conference that he “believes” it is still possible to accommodate an increase in real wages without falling into an inflationary spiral, but the risk exists and must be monitored. It is the IMF monitoring the great concerns of the ECB.
