The Minister of Foreign Affairs argues that China is in a situation of balance in relation to the conflict in Ukraine and that, if it supplies arms to Russia, Portugal and the European Union will have to review relations with Beijing.
“I don’t think China will move towards military support for Russia. It would radically change the way China is seen in the world, it would be a big mistake and it would obviously also change the way it relates to Europe and Portugal would naturally not fail to be affected by this process”, said João Gomes Cravinho in an interview with Lusa, on the occasion of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which marks today.
For the head of Portuguese diplomacy, “China is in a difficult situation, of some balancing act”, but if it takes the step of supporting Russia militarily, there will be consequences: “We would have to review our links with China. We would have to review the meaning of our political and economic relationship with China, Portugal and other European countries”, he defended.
João Gomes Cravinho recalled that China and Russia celebrated “a partnership without limits”, an expression used shortly before the war, but it is not clear that Beijing was aware of the Russian President’s intentions in relation to Ukraine, and the indications received are that “no was very pleased with this warlike attitude of President [Russian, Vladimir] Putin”.
In the week in which the diplomacy of Beijing and Moscow agreed on the deepening of relations, the Portuguese minister addressed the peace plan for Ukraine that China proposes to present, expressing doubts about its credibility.
“There is a very strong connection between the two countries and China has less credibility when it says it wants to present a peace plan”, commented the minister, noting that, on the other hand, the Chinese authorities point out several “important principles”, such as integrity territory, respect for the Charter of the United Nations and the peaceful resolution of international disputes.
In this sense, “if a Chinese proposal respects these principles, it could be an interesting proposal”, he noted: “Let’s see if it is a proposal that can attract President Putin’s attention”.
The head of Portuguese diplomacy also left a message to Iran, which “is making a very serious mistake” by getting involved in military support for Russia.
“The situation in Iran was already very difficult. But the tenth package of sanctions [from the European Union that will be declared today] already contains sanctions directed at seven Iranian entities to penalize them for supporting Russia”, said the official.
Regarding the sanctions, Cravinho maintained that their impact “is much greater than what is seen”. In addition to sanctions on individuals and oligarchs, who “no longer have access to their homes in Malaga”, a total of 1,400 people from the Russian elite who, “no longer able to live the lifestyle they previously had”, there are “much greater consequences ” in industrial capacity, fundamental to the war effort.
The minister pointed out the concrete case of automobile production, which faces a lack of parts and interrupted supply chains. When talking about the manufacture of cars, he continued, it is not a question of being dangerous in themselves, but because there are many components “that are dual-use and can be used in the manufacture of equipment that has military functionality”.
The Russian capacity to feed its economy and its industry in particular “has been severely” hit, according to the minister, which leads again to Iran, when Russia has to resort to Iranian ‘drones’ because it no longer has ‘chips’ necessary for self-manufacturing.
Russian aggression, defended Cravinho, who was Defense Minister at the time of the invasion, led to “a strong reaction on the part of all European countries in the transatlantic relationship of support to Ukraine”, although, in the first months, “still with some difficulty of a completely harmonious approach” to the way one looked at the war.
However, throughout this year, which could cause some fatigue, “the union was consolidated, it became increasingly stronger, deeper, more intense”, and the same happened with public opinions in most European countries, in which “the conviction was consolidated that it is necessary to support Ukraine for as long as necessary”, despite the economic costs, translated into an energy crisis and galloping inflation.
At this point, João Gomes Cravinho pointed out that gains are beginning to be observed, when inflation is now decreasing and Europe “has already adapted to new flows, new forms of energy supply and, therefore, from that perspective, although it is always penalizing to have a war at the door, the worst is possibly over and the expectations that international financial institutions have regarding growth for 2023 have been improving in recent months”.
With regard to relations with Russia, the minister recalled that they have lasted for 250 years, and there has never been a direct confrontation, despite major variations over time, but he hopes that there will again be a moment when one can talk civilly with Moscow. “Unfortunately it is not possible at this moment”, he declared, confirming that the Russian representation was not invited to present new year greetings by the diplomatic corps, last January, because, “in the current circumstances it would not be appropriate”.
On the other hand, this week the new Ukrainian ambassador in Lisbon, Maryna Yuriivna Mykhaylenko, was announced, who signals, for João Gomes Cravinho, Kiev’s desire to “strengthen the diplomatic relationship with Portugal and, therefore, she will be very welcome and surely will make an important contribution to the relationship” between the two countries.
Among the cooperation projects, Portugal is involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine, in particular schools destroyed in the Jitomir region, in central Ukraine, where the Portuguese minister was present last August, with the prospect of opening later this year.
