To understand what shapes the international geopolitical context is to understand the fears of the powers that triggered it. Although fears are real, it is the actions taken to avoid them that make them inevitable. The United States has long established its hegemony in the West. But something was missing… namely encircling Russia.
Enticing Ukraine to join NATO prompted a response from Putin, who was rightly afraid that the American sphere of influence would spread to the rest of his border. But the invasion has materialized that fear, now that normally neutral Sweden and Finland have moved towards NATO membership.
Also in the east, the United States is afraid of Chinese growth. As such, they surrounded China’s shipping lanes and threatened its security with a presence in Taiwan.
They certainly also expect a disproportionate response from China, which has avoided following the Russian example. But he also lives with the fear, and rightly so, that the United States will have no limits to block China’s rise.
All these fears, which are real and understandable, culminate in the reality we are witnessing today: an ever-widening, increasingly aggressive division of the world. China, despite condemning the war, does not publicly condemn the aggressor. The dilemma is great.
What serves China best?
A strong Russia or one weakened by the spoils of war?
In fact, none of these scenarios satisfies Chinese growth. On the other hand, support for Russia, however subtle, reinforces the division – and that doesn’t benefit the country that wants to increase its influence on the globe either.
The United States will not stop. Turning off the war atrocious its economy and gives the green path for China to take its place in the medium-long term. Russia will not stop. You will exhaust all options until you give up – and there are still many… and dangerous ones.
China will not stop either.
Because its growth is inevitable and there is no reason to sabotage it in the name of a “common good” preached by the United States.
All want hegemony and command over the world order. But there are wars in which there are no winners. If there are no compromises, there is no future.
*Executive Director of PLATAFORMA
