A new study by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) and the Mozambican Judicial Training Institute warns that the armed insurgency in northern Mozambique is “one of Africa’s least understood and most nebulous threats.”
“Little is known about the identity, goals and ideology of the group” that has been attacking northern Mozambique for five years, whose militants “do not have a clear communication strategy” and this “makes the resolution of the crisis even more difficult”, says the statement. study.
Doubts about what is behind the violence led the authors to seek to understand among the population “the deep causes of the crisis” – acting at the root, can be a solution, they justify.
Thus, they conducted a survey that covered 309 people and 28 “well placed informants”, to which a pre-defined range of responses was presented for each response.
As suggested in other works, the discovery of valuable natural resources emerges as a more chosen answer to the causes of conflict.
“A total of 45% of respondents said the main cause of the insurgency was the discovery of rubies and natural gas”, others pointed to the availability of illicit weapons (13%), economic marginalization (6%), elite greed (5% ) and poor governance (4%).
According to the ISS, the responses support the idea that the militant group Ahlu-Sunnah wal Jama’a (ASWJ), supported by the Islamic State in Mozambique, “were facilitated by the so-called curse of natural resources: the expectations of the population, but inequalities have increased”.
“Some complain that they have lost land and livelihoods to land-built gas infrastructure”, doubting that the projects “reduce poverty and improve public services”.
Thus, “what was initially a small radical group grew to become a major threat that shunned large multinationals such as TotalEnergies,” the summary describes.
In the survey, only 8% said they believe insurgents fund their activities with organized crime.
“A much larger proportion (38%) mentioned foreign sources and 13% said that the group uses its own resources”, the result of looting.
Ethnicity was seen by only 2% of respondents as a driver of the insurgency.
The role of an extremist ideology and the recruitment and radicalization of the ASWJ “should not be overlooked,” the study warns.
About 60% of respondents “said that religion plays a role in the violence, although many believe that the Muslim religion is being instrumentalised”.
“The study found that radicalization occurs predominantly in mosques and, to a lesser extent, in markets”, contrary to the global trend of radicalization “increasingly done online and through other illicit networks”.
The study concludes that “there is a need for dialogue and reconciliation between Muslims and Christians in Cabo Delgado”, but “also between Muslims” – and necessary government actions “include partnering with local organizations to address legitimate grievances”.
ISS Africa also suggests the creation of “a commission of inquiry into the drivers of violent extremism and the development of a national strategy to deal with all aspects of the crisis”.
Cabo Delgado province is rich in natural gas, but terrorized since 2017 by armed violence, with some attacks claimed by the Islamic State extremist group.
The insurgency led to a military response a year ago by Rwandan and Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces, liberating districts next to the gas projects, but leading to a new wave of attacks in other areas, closer to Pemba. , provincial capital, and in Nampula province.
There are about 800,000 internally displaced people due to the conflict, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and about 4,000 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registry project.
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi said this week that at least six people had died since August 31 in a new wave of incursions against villages along the Lúrio River, the natural border between Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces.
Among the victims is an Italian nun from the Chipende mission in Nampula.
