Limiting global warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial values would reduce risks to humans by up to 85%, according to a study released yesterday.
The study, on the benefits of limiting global warming in regions most vulnerable to climate change, calculates the reductions in a series of risks for humans, such as lack of water, heat stress, diseases transmitted by new vectors, coastal and river floods and the effects on agriculture and the economy. The calculations are based on a temperature rise of 3.66 °C, 2 °C and 1.5 °C.
Led by the University of East Anglia, in the United Kingdom, the investigations indicate how important it is to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, as recommended by the Paris Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gases. But, because world climate policies are currently insufficient to keep global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial times average values, researchers compare it with higher warming, with risks for humans increasing as warming increases. global.
According to the research, the risks of a warming of 3.66 °C will be reduced between 26% and 74% if the temperature rise does not exceed 2 °C and will have a reduction between 32% and 85% if the can be limited to just 1.5 °C.
The research results, published in the journal Climatic Change, indicate that in percentage terms the most avoided risks are those of river floods, drought and heat stress, although in absolute terms the risk reduction is greater for drought.
The researchers identified West Africa, India and North America as regions where risks from climate change are projected to increase the most with 1.5°C or 2°C of average global warming by 2100.
Comparing a temperature increase of 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C compared to pre-industrial times, the results indicate that global exposure to malaria and dengue is 10% lower at 1.5 °C. .
