Macau can wait
The sanitary siege keeps Macau safe from the pandemic, but it drags the economy into a deep crisis, which nobody really projects. With the GDP drop by 60 percent, the Chief Executive expects the recovery to end the year. So many doubts … and a certainty. Macau is in no hurry – it can and wants to wait.
Nobody expects street demonstrations to demand the opening of borders. It will not happen
Its unique geography allows it to be isolated. It closes borders, as in Bilal’s “City of Glass”: breathe death outside, here the air is ours. The economic consequences are heavy. However, the colossal financial reserves, the weight of the Public Administration in employability, the prohibition of dismissing residents, rentier contracts and the distribution of benefits… make the stores that close and the drama of the middle bourgeoisie, which despairs about the return of normality, a minor collateral – and controlled.
Nobody expects street demonstrations to demand the opening of borders. It will not happen.
The rise in infections in Hong Kong keeps the borders with the former British colony closed – they won’t open anytime soon. Day by day the financial, economic, and even relational and playful interdependence with the other side of the Delta decreases. Here, too, there are negative consequences – even at the level of critical mass and the culture of political demand. But if there is one thing that rests Beijing it is Macau to turn its back on Hong Kong and turn to the Continent. The border with the Great Bay will open quickly. This unavoidable relationship will accelerate the diversification path as a way out of the crisis.
Finally… not least. Casinos suffer colossal losses, operators devalue and issue debt. I would say the pure economy, fixed on the numbers: it is a drama to drop the industry that sustains Macau. Intuitive speculative – or sophisticated policy: when tourism returns, how much have American casinos lost? What will be the negotiating capacity in renewing concessions, without a political network lost in the Anglo-Saxon war against capitalist communism? What is the real interest in “nationalizing” the Game and preventing capital flight?
Macau is in no hurry. Get health, of course. It is understood.
* Administrator of Plataforma