The Islamic State has not yet claimed the origin of Covid-19 as its own and as revenge on the “infidels”, but it is planning ways to use the effects of the pandemic to destabilize opponents and obtain new victories in the media war.
This is the analysis by the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS) in a study released on Wednesday.
For FRS analysts, the Islamic State (ISIS) will be preparing to take advantage of the effects of the pandemic in the Middle East to reorganize its structures, plan new attacks and, immediately, obtain the release of militants detained in prisons. of countries like Iraq.
“Divine punishment”
ISIS initially spoke of the pandemic as “a divine punishment against China, because of its atheism and the treatment it inflicts on its Muslim Uighur minority”, explains Jean-Luc Marret, the study’s author.
In a second step, it began to accuse Beijing of deliberately underestimating the effects of the pandemic.
In a third moment, during February 2020, the ISIS language started to emphasize security issues for its militants, while also emphasizing the supremacy of Islam as an instrument in the fight against the pandemic.
Thus, according to ISIS documents published on its information channels, one can read the praise for the Islamic dress, “made to guarantee the protection” of believers, the social rules that value social distance and various practical advice, such as ” those who are in good health should not go to territories with the virus and those who are affected should not leave” the places where they are.
Freedom for jihadists
But the main center of concern for jihadists is the release of detained militants “mainly in Syria and Iraq”, explains Marret in his analysis.
Other countries in which this would also be the main strategy for ISIS are Afghanistan and Nigeria.
On the other hand, the concentration of efforts by States in combating the pandemic can create opportunities, in the perspective of the ISIS, to carry out attacks. Especially in fragile countries or those that depend to some extent on the presence of foreign troops for training and for their internal security.
The best example of this is Iraq from where several countries are drawing forces that had them on the ground, especially on training missions. In African countries, where UN or European Union missions are also present, this and other restrictive measures are also being applied.
The United Nations itself has announced the suspension of the rotation of its personnel on international missions.
An “ally” for jihadists
The FRS document points out that, in the past, ISIS tried to find ways to carry out bacteriological attacks, albeit unsuccessfully.
The FRS analysis does not rule out the possibility that jihadists would resort to a “rustic and improvised” way of putting Covid-19 at their service. Although I take that possibility as remote.
As it happened in the April 4 attack in Romans-sur-Isère, France, the preferred methods continue to be the use of knifes, due to the lack of firearms, in order to cause fatalities. But the FRS analyst does not rule out the possibility of an IS militant, or someone under the control of the Jihdists, infected with Covid-19, being transformed into a “human weapon” to spread the virus and cause innocent victims.
“The use of these means should not be underestimated”, warns the FRS analyst.
